Today: Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 reframes as Iran crisis talks. Goldman Sachs pushes first Fed cut to Dec 2026βMar 2027. Intel+AMD surge as Apple reportedly negotiates Intel chip purchases. Micron +38% weekly. Inspire Brands (Dunkin', Arby's) files IPO β first major consumer IPO post-tariffs. Senate crypto vote May 14. Helsing raises $1.2B at $18B valuation β defense tech goes VC. BTC holds $80K.
Macro: Strong April jobs (wages +4% annualized vs 2% Fed target) has killed H1 2026 rate-cut case. Goldman Sachs revision from "cut in H1" to "Dec 2026βMar 2027" is a full quarter later than prior consensus. 10Y yield at 4.5-4.7% is critical zone β above 4.7% tech valuations face pressure.
AI Chip Diversification: Intel+AMD outperforming Nvidia signals AI chip diversification is a real structural theme: all major tech giants (Apple, AWS, Google) reducing single-supplier risk. Micron's 38% weekly gain reflects HBM memory re-rating from "commodity DRAM" to "AI infrastructure premium."
Geopolitical: Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 has fundamentally shifted focus: Iran/Hormuz has overtaken trade as priority agenda. China is Persian Gulf oil's biggest buyer β Hormuz disruption directly hits China's April energy imports. FT reports US sanctioned a Chinese company providing satellite imagery to Iran β pre-summit pressure tactic or structural decoupling signal? Expect Asia volatility May 13-16.
Crypto: BTC holding $80K with $75K as critical support. Fear & Greed at 38 reflects cautious sentiment despite price stability. Senate crypto regulation vote May 14 is the next major catalyst β passage would be significant bullish signal.
Asia market volatility May 13-16 pre/post Trump-Xi summit β reduce ADR exposure. Senate crypto vote May 14 creates crypto sector opportunity. Micron momentum intact on HBM demand. Monitor 10Y yield β above 4.7% triggers tech rotation.
Intel May 18 Investor Day is the next validation point for AI chip diversification theme. HBM memory cycle structurally strong. Inspire Brands IPO result signals consumer sector health post-tariffs. Credit markets at risk β Aegon/Barclays warn April rally fading, watch for spread widening.
AI infrastructure supercycle intact but valuations stretched. Q2 AI lab profitability signals are the litmus test: improving margins = real revolution; slowing growth = bubble. Iran conflict lasting through Q3 would permanently reshape global energy trade, opening shale capex supercycle. Nvidia $400B+ equity commitments = AI ecosystem control deepening.