Grayscale: Bitcoin Bottom Forming
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argues Bitcoin has evolved into a macro asset. In the report "Bitcoin: 4-year cycle or macro asset?", Pandl suggests BTC price is now driven by real interest rates and economic growth rather than the traditional 4-year halving cycle. If the Fed halts rate hikes and the economy remains resilient, the bear market may have already reached its bottom.
ETF Inflows Streak
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $727 million in cumulative net inflows over 5 consecutive days as of July 22, the longest streak since early May 2026. BlackRock's IBIT leads institutional demand. July total inflows reached $427 million.
FOMC Risk Event
The July 28-29 FOMC meeting will be the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Markets expect rates to hold steady, but probability of 2026-2027 rate hikes has increased. Dollar strength from hawkish Fed would pressure risk assets including crypto.
The crypto market shows constructive signs of stabilization. Bitcoin's recovery above $65K, driven by sustained ETF inflows, suggests institutional demand is absorbing selling pressure.
Grayscale's analysis that BTC has matured into a macro asset is significant — Fed policy decisions now carry more weight than mining reward halvings for price movements.
Key risks: FOMC hawkish surprise on July 28-29 could reverse the recovery. BTC needs to hold $60K support to maintain constructive technical structure.